Italy vulnerable to economic crisis due to high public debt, economist says
June 13, 2010 09:58 Beijing Time
Italy is particularly vulnerable to the financial and economic crisis, especially due to its elevated public debt, a senior economist told Xinhua in an interview on Friday.
"As the crisis evolved from excessive private debt to a high public debt crisis, Italy became decidedly more vulnerable," said Tito Michele Boeri, a professor of economics at Milan's Bocconi University.
For the expert, Italy's weak point is its low rate of growth, which results in a growingly higher public debt. "Between 2000 and 2007, Italian GDP grew 6 percent less than Germany and France, and a slower recovery from the crisis is foreseen," he said.
The depreciation of the euro would boost Italy's exports in the short term, he added, but industry needs to structurally re- specialize to compete with low labor level costs countries.
Speaking of the 24-billion-euro budget correction recently approved by the government to curb public expenditures, Boeri stressed that it aims at reassuring global markets on Italy's financial stability, but it is not enough in sustaining the substantial reforms for growth of which the country is badly in need of.
"I appreciate government's efforts to cut pays in public sector and clamp down on tax evasion in 2011-2012, but the plan is insufficient and contains many aspects which are quite obscure and questionable," he stressed.
Boeri pointed out that the correction especially lacks structural expense reduction. To the contrary, he noted, when it will be running regularly in 2012, the 40 percent of it will be composed by major revenues.
"As usual, young people are going to face hardest hit from the plan, which will cut short-term employment contracts, stop hiring in public sector and postpone again social security cushion reform, " he stressed.
Noting that the coalition headed by conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi didn't pass any serious reform since it rose to power in 2008, Boeri said a structural reform of the market labor and of the school system, as well as a fair welfare reform, would be the necessary starting point.
Italy has not been recently playing a central role on the international scene, despite being one of the most developed countries in the world, he added regarding the upcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit in Toronto.
Boeri suggested that Italian political leaders take more into consideration some important signals evidenced by authoritative papers.
"According to a study recently presented at the Trento-based ( northern Italy) festival of Economics, many Italian citizens do not know the real situation and risks of their country after the outbreak of the financial crisis," he said.
"I was negatively surprised to find out that many people believe 2009 was a year of economic growth," he added.